Between Ambition and Reality: Geopolitical Conflict, Fossil Fuel Dependency, and the Structural Limits of Global Clean Energy Transition Governance
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Abstract
The global clean energy transition, institutionalized through the Paris Agreement and successive Conferences of the Parties, rests on nationally determined contribution frameworks and multilateral renewable energy targets that presuppose stable geopolitical conditions, adequate development finance, and sustained political consensus. This paper critically examines whether these foundational assumptions hold under conditions of geopolitical disruption, using the 2026 Iran–United States conflict and the associated closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a revealing stress test. Drawing on energy governance literature, geopolitical risk theory, and NDC implementation evidence, this desk review argues that global clean energy transition frameworks are structurally overambitious in their design: they set targets without adequate demand-side realism, without conflict-resilience mechanisms, and without accounting for the fiscal displacement effects on Global South economies. The paper introduces the concept of the Ambition-Reality Gap as a governance design failure rather than a political failure, and argues that unless multilateral climate frameworks are redesigned to integrate geopolitical scenario planning, energy security contingencies, and differentiated transition pathways, successive geopolitical shocks will continue to entrench fossil fuel dependencies while eroding NDC credibility. The paper concludes with governance design recommendations oriented toward COP31.
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