Climate Change in East Africa. A Layman’s Perspective on the Effects of Climate Change in East Africa
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Abstract
This paper examines climate change impacts in East Africa through the lived experiences of ordinary people, with a particular focus on Kenya. Africa emerges as the most vulnerable continent to climate change despite contributing minimally to its causes. The vulnerability stems from societies' heavy dependence on rainfall for agriculture, the complex and understudied nature of African climate systems, the magnitude of projected climate changes, and limited adaptive capacity at both individual and governmental levels. The authors present a layman's perspective, drawing from personal observations spanning several decades. They document how traditional seasonal patterns—long wet season (April-June), cool dry season (July-September), short wet season (October-December), and warm dry season (January-March)—have become increasingly erratic and unpredictable. This disruption has severely affected smallholder farmers and pastoralists who have relied on these patterns for generations to guide planting, harvesting, and livestock management decisions. The paper provides extensive documentation of climate-induced disasters in Kenya from 1971 to 2020, including devastating droughts, floods, and landslides. Notable events include the 2011 drought that affected 3.75 million people, declared a national disaster, and the 2020 flooding that caused Lake Victoria to exceed its 56-year record water level, displacing over 200,000 people. The research highlights how drought-stricken areas like Narok, Makueni, and Tana River paradoxically experience destructive floods when rains return, creating a cycle of disaster. Beyond food insecurity, climate change has exacerbated regional conflicts, particularly cattle rustling among pastoral communities competing for scarce resources. The authors critique both meteorological departments for failing to provide accurate forecasts and communities for not heeding warnings when issued. They emphasize that mitigation and adaptation efforts have been largely reactive rather than preventive, relying heavily on humanitarian aid that has become habitual for certain regions. The paper concludes with a call for collective global responsibility, sustainable mitigation measures, improved forecasting capacity, and a fundamental culture change to address this man-induced crisis.
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