Capacity Without Institutions: Why Training Interventions Fail to Close the NDC Implementation Gap in East Africa
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##
Abstract
Despite two decades of sustained international investment in climate capacity-building, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) implementation in East Africa remains persistently below the trajectory. This paper argues that this paradox is structurally produced by a fundamental mismatch between what capacity-building interventions build and what NDC implementation requires. Drawing on Andrews, Pritchett, and Woolcock's capability traps framework, Ostrom's Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, and the emerging climate governance literature on adaptation implementation deficits, we develop a three-level analytical framework distinguishing individual, organizational, and systemic capacity. Through a comparative document analysis of NDC texts, national planning documents, budget frameworks, and capacity-building program documentation across Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda, we demonstrate that international interventions concentrate overwhelmingly at the individual level while implementation failures occur predominantly at organizational and systemic levels. We introduce the concept of institutional absorption capacity to theorize the mechanisms through which individual skills either translate or fail to translate into enduring institutional change. The paper contributes to the climate governance literature by providing the first systematic comparative assessment of the capacity-institution gap in East African NDC implementation and draws implications for the redesign of climate capacity-building architecture under the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) framework.
Publish Your Research in This Journal
Open Journal of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation welcomes original research submissions on related topics.
- Double-blind peer review
- First decision in 3–4 weeks
- DOI assigned on publication
- Open Access — free to read
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##
References
Adger, W. N., Hughes, T. P., Folke, C., Carpenter, S. R., & Rockström, J. (2005). Social-Ecological Resilience to Coastal Disasters. Science, 309(5737), 1036–1039. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1112122
African Development Bank. (2023, May 16). Climate finance in Africa: African Development Bank spearheading innovative mechanisms and instruments [Text]. African Development Bank Group. African Development Bank Group. https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/climate-finance-africa-african-development-bank-spearheading-innovative-mechanisms-and-instruments-61174
African Development Bank. (2024). Financing Climate Action in Africa (AfDB-CIF Annual Report 2023). African Development Bank Group. https://www.afdb.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/afdb-cif_annual_report_2023_0.pdf
African Union. (2015). Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want. African Union Commission. https://au.int/sites/default/files/documents/36204-doc-agenda2063_popular_version_en.pdf
Andrews, M. (2013). The Limits of Institutional Reform in Development: Changing Rules for Realistic Solutions. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139060974
Andrews, M., Pritchett, L., & Woolcock, M. (2017). Building State Capability: Evidence, Analysis, Action. Oxford University Press. https://bsc.hks.harvard.edu/publications/building-state-capability-evidence-analysis-action/
Argyris, C., & Schön, D. A. (1978). Organizational Learning: A Theory of Action Perspective. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
Baser, H., & Morgan, P. (2008). Capacity, Change and Performance Study Report (Discussion Paper No 59B). European Centre for Development Policy Management. https://ecdpm.org/application/files/2516/5547/2658/DP-59B-Capacity-Change-Performance-Study-Report-2008.pdf
Basurto, X., Kingsley, G., McQueen, K., Smith, M., & Weible, C. M. (2010). A Systematic Approach to Institutional Analysis: Applying Crawford and Ostrom’s Grammar. Political Research Quarterly, 63(3), 523–537. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912909334430
Benner, T., Reinicke, W. H., & Witte, J. M. (2004). Multisectoral Networks in Global Governance: Towards a Pluralistic System of Accountability. Government and Opposition, 39(2), 191–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00120.x
Betsill, M. M., & Bulkeley, H. (2006). Cities and the multilevel governance of global climate change. Global Governance, 12(2), 141–159. https://doi.org/10.1163/19426720-01202004
Bhattacharya, A., Calland, R., Averchenkova, A., Gonzalez, L., Martinez-Diaz, L., & Rooij, J. V. (2020). Delivering on the $100 Billion Climate Finance Commitment and Transforming Climate Finance. Independent Expert Group on Climate Finance. https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/2020/12/100_billion_climate_finance_report.pdf
Biermann, F., Abbott, K., Andresen, S., Bäckstrand, K., Bernstein, S., Betsill, M. M., Bulkeley, H., Cashore, B., Clapp, J., Folke, C., Gupta, A., Gupta, J., Haas, P. M., Jordan, A., Kanie, N., Kluvánková-Oravská, T., Lebel, L., Liverman, D., Meadowcroft, J., … Zondervan, R. (2012). Science and government. Navigating the anthropocene: Improving Earth system governance. Science, 335(6074), 1306–1307. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1217255
Booth, D. (2011). Aid, Institutions and Governance: What Have We Learned? Development Policy Review, 29(s1), s5–s26. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7679.2011.00518.x
Bowen, G. A. (2009). Document Analysis as a Qualitative Research Method. Qualitative Research Journal, 9(2), 27–40. (world). https://doi.org/10.3316/QRJ0902027
Brinkerhoff, D. W., & Morgan, P. J. (2010). Capacity and capacity development: Coping with complexity. Public Administration and Development, 30(1), 2–10. https://doi.org/10.1002/pad.559
Buchner, B., Naran, B., Pedro Fernandes, Padmanabhi, R., Rosane, P., Solomon, M., Stout, S., Strinati, C., Tolentino, R., Wakaba, G., Zhu, Y., Meattle, C., & Guzmán, S. (2021). Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2021. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Full-report-Global-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-2021.pdf
Carty, T., & Kowalzig, J. (n.d.). Climate Finance Short-changed: The real value of the $100 billion commitment in 2019–2020. Oxfam Policy & Practice. Retrieved 17 March 2026, from https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/climate-finance-short-changed-the-real-value-of-the-100-billion-commitment-in-2-621426/
Chambers, R. (1994). The origins and practice of participatory rural appraisal. World Development, 22(7), 953–969. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(94)90141-4
Chambers, R. (2005). Ideas for Development. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781849771665
Chambwera, M., Heal, G., Dubeux, C., Hallegatte, S., Leclerc, L., Markandya, A., McCarl, B. A., Mechler, R., & Neumann, J. E. (2014). 17—Economics of Adaptation. In P. Dumas, S. Fankhauser, H.-M. Füssel, A. Hunt, H. Kunreuther, R. S. J. Tol, P. Watkiss, R. Woodward, D. Zilberman, E. Calvo, A. Iglesias, & S. Navrud (Eds), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 945–977). Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap17_FINAL.pdf
Cleaver, F. (2017). Development Through Bricolage: Rethinking Institutions for Natural Resource Management. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315094915
Cohen, W. M., & Levinthal, D. A. (1990). Absorptive capacity: A new perspective on learning and innovation. Administrative Science Quarterly, 35(1), 128–152. https://doi.org/10.2307/2393553
DiMaggio, P. J., & Powell, W. W. (1983). The Iron Cage Revisited: Institutional Isomorphism and Collective Rationality in Organizational Fields. American Sociological Review, 48(2), 147–160. https://doi.org/10.2307/2095101
Dubash, N. K. (2021). Varieties of climate governance: The emergence and functioning of climate institutions. Environmental Politics, 30(sup1), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2021.1979775
East African Community. (2011). East African Community Climate Change Master Plan 2011-2031. East African Community Secretariat. https://acts-net.org/OLD-SITE/images/Docs/EAC_Climate_Change_Master_Plan.pdf
Eisenhardt, K. M. (1989). Agency Theory: An Assessment and Review. The Academy of Management Review, 14(1), 57–74. https://doi.org/10.2307/258191
Eyben, R. (2015). Uncovering the politics of evidence and results. In R. Eyben, I. Guijt, C. Roche, & C. Shutt (Eds), The Politics of Evidence and Results in International Development: Playing the game to change the rules? Practical Action Publishing. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299867290_Uncovering_the_politics_of_evidence_and_results
Folke, C., Hahn, T., Olsson, P., & Norberg, J. (2005). Adaptive Governance of Social-ecological Systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 30(Volume 30, 2005), 441–473. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.30.050504.144511
Fox, J. A. (2015). Social Accountability: What Does the Evidence Really Say? World Development, 72, 346–361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.03.011
Gaventa, J., & McGee, R. (2013). The Impact of Transparency and Accountability Initiatives. Development Policy Review, 31(s1), s3–s28. https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12017
George, A. L., & Bennett, A. (2005). Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. MIT Press.
GIZ. (2022). GIZ African Union: Embracing Resilience: Africa’s Pathway to Sustainable Development (Annual Report 2022). Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH. https://www.giz.de/de/downloads/giz-en-2022-annual-report.pdf
Global Center on Adaptation. (2023). The State and Trends in Adaptation 2023 Report. Global Center on Adaptation. https://gca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/STA23_web-version.pdf
Government of Kenya. (2021). Kenya’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and JCM activities. Ministry of Environment Climate Change and Forestry. https://kenyaclimatedirectory.org/
Government of Kenya. (2023). National Climate Change Action Plan (Kenya) 2023-2027: Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry. https://emsi.co.ke/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Kenya-NCCAP-2023-2027-1.pdf
Government of Rwanda. (2020). Updated Nationally Determined Contribution. Minister of Environment, Republic of Rwanda. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/Rwanda_Updated_NDC_May_2020.pdf
Government of Tanzania. (2021). Tanzania’s Nationally Determined Contribution. United Republic of Tanzania, Vice President’s Office. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/TANZANIA_NDC_SUBMISSION_30%20JULY%202021.pdf
Government of Uganda. (2022). Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Republic of Uganda, Ministry of Water and Environment. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-09/Updated%20NDC%20_Uganda_2022%20Final.pdf
Green Climate Fund. (2024). Readiness and Preparatory Support Programme – annual report on implementation 2023 (Text GCF/B.40/Inf.05). Green Climate Fund. https://www.greenclimate.fund/document/gcf-b40-inf05
Grindle, M. S. (with Internet Archive). (1997). Getting good government: Capacity building in the public sectors of developing countries. [Cambridge, MA] : Harvard Institute for International Development, Harvard University : Distributed by Harvard University Press. http://archive.org/details/gettinggoodgover00meri
Haites, E., Bertoldi, P., König, M., Bataille, C., Creutzig, F., Dasgupta, D., de la rue du Can, S., Khennas, S., Kim, Y.-G., Nilsson, L. J., Roy, J., & Sari, A. (2024). Contribution of carbon pricing to meeting a mid-century net zero target. Climate Policy, 24(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2170312
Hall, P. A., & Taylor, R. C. R. (1996). Political Science and the Three New Institutionalisms. Political Studies, 44(5), 936–957. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9248.1996.tb00343.x
Hirschman, A. O. (1970). Exit, voice, and loyalty: Responses to decline in firms, organizations, and states. Harvard University Press. https://hdl.handle.net/2027/heb04043.0001.001
Hochstetler, K. (2020). Political Economies of Energy Transition: Wind and Solar Power in Brazil and South Africa. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108920353
Howlett, M., Ramesh, M., & Perl, A. (2009). Studying Public Policy: Policy Cycles & Policy Subsystems. Oxford University Press.
ICAT. (2023). ICAT 2022 Impact Report. Initiative for Climate Action Transparency (ICAT). https://climateactiontransparency.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2022-impact-report-updated-2.pdf
Ijjasz-Vasquez, E., Saghir, J., & Richmond, M. (2024, February 22). Finance for climate adaptation in Africa still insufficient and losing ground. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/finance-for-climate-adaptation-in-africa-still-insufficient-and-losing-ground/
Khalifa, N. (2025, December 21). Enhancing the Viability of NDCs in East Africa: Assessing Progress, Gaps and path to net zero. https://gepc.or.tz/enhancing-the-viability-of-ndcs-in-east-africa-assessing-progress-gaps-and-path-to-net-zero/
Leftwich, A., & Wheeler, C. (2011). Politics, Leadership and Coalitions in Development—A Research and Policy Workshop Report. Findings, Insights and Guidance from the DLP’s First Research and Policy Workshop. Frankfurt 10 -11 March 2011. https://dlprog.org/wp-content/uploads/publications/nFv3S0rCyIzOCcXoZXDN4iXUSRhmE9jct3htVug8.pdf
Lesnikowski, A., Ford-Robertson, J., Biesbroek, G. R., Berrang-Ford, L., & Heymann, S. J. (2016). National-level progress on adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 6, 261–264. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2863
Mahoney, J., & Thelen, K. (2010). Explaining Institutional Change: Ambiguity, Agency, and Power. Cambridge University Press.
McGinnis, M. D. (2011). An Introduction to IAD and the Language of the Ostrom Workshop: A Simple Guide to a Complex Framework. Policy Studies Journal, 39(1), 169–183. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0072.2010.00401.x
Meattle, C., Balm, A., Diaz, J. E., Miao, G., Stout, S., Gupta, I., Abraham, S., Sloley, A., & Wignarajah, D. (2024). Landscape of Climate Finance in Africa—2024. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-in-Africa-2024.pdf
Meattle, C., Padmanabhi, R., Fernandes, P. de A., Balm, A., Chiriac, D., & Tonkonogy, B. (2022). Landscape of Climate Finance in Africa—2022. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-in-Africa.pdf
Meckling, J., & Jenner, S. (2016). Varieties of market-based policy: Instrument choice in climate policy. Environmental Politics, 25(5), 853–874. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2016.1168062
MINECOFIN. (2022). Enhance the Capacity of MREF Costing in Rwanda (Rwanda MTEF User Manual). Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning. https://www.minecofin.gov.rw/index.php?eID=dumpFile&t=f&f=62510&token=9895b74de495b8f9065d3938e5e06ca98cd71970
Morgan, P. (2006). The Concept of Capacity. European Centre for Development Policy Management. https://ecdpm.org/application/files/3616/5547/2779/2006-The-Concept-of-Capacity.pdf
Mosse, D. (2004). Cultivating Development: An Ethnography of Aid Policy and Practice. Pluto Books.
NDC Partnership. (2022). Annual Report on the Taskforce on Access to Climate Finance 2023. NDC Partnership. https://ndcpartnership.org/sites/default/files/2023-12/annual-report-taskforce-access-climate-finance-2023.pdf
Northrop, E., Dagnet, Y., Höhne, N., Thwaites, J., & Mogelgaard, K. (2018). Achieving the ambition of Paris: Designing the global Stocktake. World Resources Institute (WRI). https://newclimate.org/sites/default/files/2018/04/achieving-ambition-paris-designing-global-stocktake.pdf
OECD. (2023). Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries in 2013-2021: Aggregate Trends and Opportunities for Scaling Up Adaptation and Mobilised Private Finance. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/e20d2bc7-en
Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press.
Ostrom, E. (2009). Understanding Institutional Diversity. Princeton University Press.
Pahl-Wostl, C. (2009). A conceptual framework for analysing adaptive capacity and multi-level learning processes in resource governance regimes. Global Environmental Change, 19(3), 354–365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.06.001
Pauw, W. P., Castro, P., Pickering, J., & Bhasin, S. (2020). Conditional nationally determined contributions in the Paris Agreement: Foothold for equity or Achilles heel? Climate Policy, 20(4), 468–484. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1635874
Pelling, M., O’Brien, K., & Matyas, D. (2015). Adaptation and transformation. Climatic Change, 133(1), 113–127. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1303-0
Polski, M. M., & Ostrom, E. (1999). An institutional framework for policy analysis and design (Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis Working Paper W98-27; pp. 13–47). Lexington Books. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=11425722912175997559&hl=en&oi=scholarr
Pratt, J. W. (1978). Risk aversion in the small and in the large. In P. Diamond & M. Rothschild (Eds), Uncertainty in Economics (pp. 59–79). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-214850-7.50010-3
Pritchett, L. (2014). The Rebirth of Education: Schooling Ain’t Learning. Center for Global Development. https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/rebirth-education-introduction_0.pdf
Pritchett, L., Woolcock, M., & Andrews, M. (2013). Looking Like a State: Techniques of Persistent Failure in State Capability for Implementation. Journal of Development Studies, 49(1), 1–18. https://ideas.repec.org//a/taf/jdevst/v49y2013i1p1-18.html
REMA. (2022). Detailed Implementation Plan for the Nationally Determined Contributions (Ndcs) of Rwanda. Rwanda Environment Management Authority. https://www.environment.gov.rw/index.php?eID=dumpFile&t=f&f=10560&token=7e81ec575786faf65e6e1713ee0f16020c08fc98
Roelfsema, M., van Soest, H. L., Harmsen, M., van Vuuren, D. P., Bertram, C., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Iacobuta, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Luderer, G., Riahi, K., Ueckerdt, F., Després, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Gidden, M., … Vishwanathan, S. S. (2020). Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications, 11(1), 2096. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6
Saldana, J. (2021). The Coding Manual for Qualitative Researchers. SAGE.
Savvidou, G., Atteridge, A., Omari-Motsumi, K., & Trisos, C. H. (2021). Quantifying international public finance for climate change adaptation in Africa. Climate Policy, 21(8), 1020–1036. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1978053
Schipper, E. L. F., Revi, A., & Preston, B. L. (2022). Climate-Resilient Development Pathways Supplementary Material. In D. Liverman & Z. Shawoo (Eds), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter18_SM.pdf
Termeer, C. J. A. M., Dewulf, A., & Biesbroek, G. R. (2017). Transformational change: Governance interventions for climate change adaptation from a continuous change perspective. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 60(4), 558–576. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2016.1168288
Tompkins, E., & Adger, W. N. (2004). Ecology and Society: Does Adaptive Management of Natural Resources Enhance Resilience to Climate Change? Ecology and Society, 9(2). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-00667-090210
Trisos, C. H., Adelekan, I. O., & Totin, E. (2022). Chapter 9: Africa. In H. Pörtner (Ed.), Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (pp. 1285–1455). Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/
Underdal, A. (2010). Complexity and challenges of long-term environmental governance. Global Environmental Change, Governance, Complexity and Resilience, 20(3), 386–393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.02.005
UNDP. (2009). Capacity Development: A UNDP Primer. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/publications/capacity-development-undp-primer
UNDP. (2023a). Adaptation Gap Report 2023. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023
UNDP. (2023b). Climate Promise—II. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2023-04/Climate%20Promise_Project%20Brief%202023.pdf
UNFCCC. (2022). Synthesis report for the technical assessment component of the first global stocktake: State of adaptation efforts, experiences and priorities. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Synthesis%20report%20on%20the%20state%20of%20adaptation%20efforts%2C%20experiences%20and%20priorities.pdf
UNFCCC. (2024a). 2023 NDC Synthesis Report. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. https://unfccc.int/ndc-synthesis-report-2023
UNFCCC. (2024b). Decision -/CMA.6: New collective quantified goal on climate finance. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/CMA_11%28a%29_NCQG.pdf
Volberda, H. W., Foss, N. J., & Lyles, M. A. (2010). PERSPECTIVE—Absorbing the Concept of Absorptive Capacity: How to Realize Its Potential in the Organization Field. Organization Science, 21(4), 931–951. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1090.0503
World Bank. (2022). Rwanda Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/6b410886-99f8-555e-a884-0695218a8458
World Bank. (2023). Africa Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA). World Bank. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099634410132333843
Yin, R. K. (2017). Case Study Research and Applications: Design and Methods. SAGE Publications. https://uk.sagepub.com/en-gb/eur/case-study-research-and-applications/book250150
Zahra, S. A., & George, G. (2002). Absorptive Capacity: A Review, Reconceptualization, and Extension. Academy of Management Review, 27(2), 185–203. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2002.6587995
