Proximate Trigger Thresholds and the Grammar of Great Power Conflict: A Comparative Analysis of Cuba (1962, Ukraine (2022 to 2026), and the Iran War (2026)
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Abstract
This paper advances a structural realist account of great power military intervention through the introduction of the Proximate Trigger Threshold (PTT) concept, defined as the geographic-military red line beyond which a dominant power transitions from diplomatic protest to kinetic response, irrespective of the legal or normative status of the triggering condition. Drawing on three temporally distinct cases, namely the United States response to Soviet missile installations in Cuba (1962), Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine (2022 to 2025), and the United States-led military campaign against Iran (2026), the paper argues that PTT violations, not ideology, regime type, or bilateral grievance, constitute the most reliable structural predictor of great power intervention. Theoretically grounded in Mearsheimer's offensive realism, Jervis's security dilemma framework, and the buffer state literature, the analysis employs structured focused comparison to identify isomorphic causal chains across otherwise divergent historical and geopolitical contexts. The paper makes two principal contributions: it introduces the PTT as an original mid-range concept that bridges offensive realism and security dilemma theory, and it demonstrates that the Monroe Doctrine's enforcement logic in Cuba constitutes a normative template subsequently deployed, selectively and asymmetrically, by both Russia and Iran to justify sphere enforcement. The normative implications for buffer state sovereignty and international legal order are examined critically.
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